Spies and Lies: The Paradox

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Only he and Harry Rowen, the head of Rand, were authorized to read it. Distressed by what the report revealed, in Ellsberg began taking pages out of the office at night and photocopying them at an advertising agency run by a friend. Despite agreeing to keep the report under wraps, Sheehan and editor Gerald Gold began excerpting the report in the newspaper on June 13, The front- page revelations of continued deceptions gave powerful impetus to the anti-war movement and infuriated President Richard Nixon.

Later that year, Ellsberg and Russo were charged under the Espionage Act of Their trial began early in The creation of the plumbers, however, was never about the Pentagon Papers. Nixon considered all that history, about the Kennedy and Johnson years. I would expect—I know him well…I am sure he has some more information. The break-in was revealed only after a nine-month recess in the trial, calculated by the White House to keep Ellsberg off the witness stand and out of the news, until after the presidential election.

Daniel Ellsberg graffiti. The filing cabinet from the office of Dr. Lewis Fielding which was broken into by E.

Howard Hunt, G. Probably not.


The Balance of Powers: A New Cold War

The immense and terrifying power of the weapons makes their use, in seeking victory in a traditional military sense, impossible. Ellsberg completed a PhD in Economics from Harvard in The basic idea is that people overwhelmingly prefer taking on risk in situations where they know specific odds, rather than an alternative risk scenario, in which the odds are completely ambiguous.

Ellsberg actually proposed two separate thought experiments, the proposed choices in which contradict subjective expected utility. The 2-color problem involves bets on two urns, both of which contain balls of two different colors. The 3-color problem, described below, involves bets on a single urn, which contains balls of three different colors. Of these, 30 are blue, and 60 are either red or yellow; any proportion is possible. It is a choice between an event with a known probability and an event with an unknown probability. Under these circumstances, people typically choose the first lottery, which wins if a blue ball is drawn.

According to expected utility theory they could only do so if they believe that there are fewer than 30 red balls in the urn or, equivalently, that there are more than 30 yellow balls. People this time typically choose the second lottery. The first lottery seems less attractive, because there might be too few yellow balls. If expected utility theory is correct, then there certainly is: You cannot think that there are too few and too many yellow balls in the urn at the same time.

The Cloverfield Paradox () - Plot Summary - IMDb

These examples proved that expected utility theory as originally proposed could not be globally correct; at best it could only predict choices under some circumstances. This has led economists and social psychologists both to attempt modifications to expected utility theory and to replace it outright. Both the modifications and replacements have provided important and economically powerful insights into choice behavior. The emerging discipline of neuroeconomics offers a new strategy both for testing existing models of all types and for developing new models with empirical techniques.

If we succeed in understanding mechanistically how choices that violate expected utility theory are made at a neural level, then a new global theory of choice will be developed. To that end, a number of laboratories are now beginning to reexamine the conditions under which expected utility theory fails. The reason that expected utility theory fails under some conditions may be that choosers use more than one evaluative mechanism at a neurobiological level. Under many conditions these mechanisms may work together to yield choices similar to those predicted by expected utility theory but may produce odd results when used in isolation, in novel combinations, or in situations for which they are ill suited.

Neuroeconomics is an interdisciplinary field that seeks to explain human decision making, the ability to process multiple alternatives and to follow a course of action. Recent work by Damasio and colleagues [for example, ] on the class of behavioral paradoxes from which the Ellsberg example is drawn seem to support this conclusion. These studies suggest that an ambiguity-sensitive mechanism associated with the expression of emotion may reside, at least in part, in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex VMPFC Fig.

These researchers and others have shown that patients with damage to this area have an impaired ability to make some classes of decisions and have difficulties planning their work and choosing friends. Further, the actions these individuals do elect to pursue often lead to financial as well as personal losses.

Yet despite these specific failures, patients with damage to the VMPFC show normal performance on multiple-choice tests of intelligence. Medial view of the left half of a human brain, with the front of the brain on the right side of the image. These observations and others like them have led Damasio to propose that the inability of patients with VMPFC lesions to make advantageous decision sunder some circumstances is caused by damage to an emotional mechanism that stores and signals the value of future consequences of an action,.

The hypothesis proposes that, because they lack this emotional mechanism, the patients must rely on other brain mechanisms that achieve a different analysis of the numerous and often conflicting options involving both immediate and future consequences. This other mechanism, operating alone, is hypothesized to produce decisions that are less efficient and slower than those produced by a normal, intact, system.

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The importance of the emotion-related VMPFC for regular decision-making has been confirmed by experiments where subjects were asked to make choices among a group of alternatives that carry a monetary reward typically by selecting one card at a time from four different decks of cards ,but for which the probability of reward is unspecified. Under these conditions, patients with VMPFC lesions seem to lack an aversion to ambiguity or losses that normal subjects have, an aversion that may be quite advantageous under many conditions.

The process may be very different, however, when subjects simply choose between options without any feedback or learning taking place at the same time. Subjects were paid for the outcome of their choices, but the outcome was communicated only after the experiment was over. Under these conditions, the VMPFC did not show any activation; it was actually less active when choices were being made than when subjects waited between trials.

These results suggest that emotional circuits may be important in learning and processing information, rather than in selecting among alternatives. Together, these data may begin to explain, in a mechanistic way, how information is analyzed when at least one class of behavior. The difficult thing about relying on people of low character is that they have rarely been swayed for the last time.

The [From. GetAdjective] spy we offered a large sum of money and our mercy for turning double agent against his country seems to have been discovered by those he betrayed. Our other spies report that he was offered to continue working for both nations, but with his true allegiance shifted back to his home country. That the offer has been made, there can be no doubt about.

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His coming out of it alive means he must have, at the very least, pretended to accept. Despite this, he may still be working for us and could only be handing token information to the enemy. Can we afford to take our chances?

TWIA: A Year in the Life of Dr. Fox by Frederick L. Malphurs

Religious institutions are considered sacrosanct and above the petty plots and schemes of countries and spies. This is why it's crucial to infiltrate them. Many secrets that would never be spoken aloud are told in confidence to religious authorities, which the practice of confession has even turned into an institution. A church in one of the countries we have focused our espionage efforts on has presented an unprecedented opportunity to exploit this. One of our loyal agents, posing as a nun in a local convent, has found that she can overhear the conversations from confessionals while doing chores in the church.

While she is likely to escape detection, the plan would outrage religious authorities if discovered. Is it worth taking our chances? Our plan to use information from confessionals to improve our intelligence gathering in a foreign country has resulted in a diplomatic disaster with the Papacy, as our agent was discovered a few months into the operation.

Facing the wrath of the church, she has since disappeared from the convent along with her belongings; whether this is her own doing or the actions of the enemy, we may never know. We can be certain, however, that the church found out enough to realized we were behind what happened.

The Pope is shocked that we would exploit the church and its practices in this way. The [Root. GetTitle] enjoys some plausible deniability, but the country's standing is still irreversibly harmed. Which neighbor is behind it remains unclear, but the constant exchanges of information would require those behind it to be close by. GetTitle] to decide who to target.

Our neighbors will probably not appreciate the accusations, but something needs to be done, and fast. Ambassadors and diplomatic envoys often double as spies, or at least informants who go beyond their duties to gather information in the country where they are supposed to do honest negotiations. This makes it less than surprising that an ambassador here in [Root. GetName] has been suspected of involvement in espionage. The challenge now lies in tactfully handling this discovery, since only a thorough cross-examination could ascertain guilt.

Once arrested and removed from the comfort of his station, the ambassador we suspected of being complicit in espionage quickly admitted his guilt under interrogation. What's more, his confession indicates the spy network he was part of was more far-reaching than previously suspected. While this is certainly an embarrassment for his home country, they are requesting we resolve the situation amicably by sending the ambassador home immediately.

While it's good praxis not to kill or imprison diplomats when it can be avoided, this man has proven himself to be an enemy of our nation. More importantly, he could still have information that is of value to us. Should we let him go to smooth over the situation? From Europa Universalis 4 Wiki.

Spies and Lies: The Paradox

This infobox may contain outdated information that is inaccurate for the current version of the game. The last version it was verified as up to date for was 1. Trigger conditions DLC Mare Nostrum is active Any known country: Size of their spy network in our country is at least 25 Size of our spy network in their country is at least 25 Has at least 50 Corruption Mean time to happen months. Accept the offer for a lesser sum and spare his life. Shadow him for a few days before he has an accident.

It’s All A Miracle

He'll be even more valuable to us now. He has done enough damage already. Invite him home for the last time. This is getting ridiculous, and so is the notion of trusting him. He fooled them again?

Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox
Spies and Lies: The Paradox

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